In 2025, Thailand held Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) elections under a coalition government headed by the Pheu Thai Party. Notwithstanding the political focus on Thaksin Shinawatra's return, the emergent progressive successor People's Party, and the increasing prominence of the Bhumjaithai Party, local political dynasties persist in their dominance over various provincial regions. These local electoral contests elucidate the electoral dynamics in national politics and the implications of decentralisation.
On February 1, 2025, Thailand held nationwide elections for the positions of Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) councillors and chief executives in 47 of its 76 provinces. The remaining 29 provinces had already elected their PAO chairpersons. The elections were significant as PAOs oversee local administration duties, including infrastructure development and provincial budgeting. Additionally, the provincial election results illuminate electoral dynamics that influence national politics and have implications for decentralisation.
According to voter turnout , it was recorded that 58.45% of eligible voters cast their vote, reflecting a 4% decrease from the 2020 election. Over 1 million people opted for 'No' votes, potentially indicating protest sentiments. The election results highlight significant outcomes in the PAO chairmanships, which can be classified into four key political groups:
“Ban Yai" or big houses refer to the established local political families that continue to dominate many provincial areas. In this election, 20 chief executives of Provincial Administrative Organisations were elected from local political families. Independent political dynasties exhibited resilience despite national party influence, leveraging strong community ties, financial resources, and patronage networks to sustain control. This indicates that, in numerous provinces, local politics continue to function independently from national party trends.
The second key group is the Bhumjaitai Party. Although the party did not formally nominate any candidates, its capacity to utilise local networks and political alliances significantly influenced the election results, resulting in the acquisition of 12 PAO chief positions across 15 provinces. The party, recognised for its robust local-level networks and dominance over essential ministries, has initiated an expansion beyond its traditional strongholds. The party's strategy of leveraging local patronage systems, healthcare policies, and rural development programs played a crucial role in these victories. Their success indicates a sustained consolidation of power at the provincial level.
Linked to this, the third key group, the People's Party, which succeeded the Move Forward Party that obtained the highest number of seats in the 2023 general election, faced it first major challenge in mobilising voters in this provincial election. In contrast to the general elections, where progressive politics and policies gained urban support, provincial politics necessitate extensive local networks. The People's Party managed to get only one PAO chief position in Lamphun as its first achievement in provincial-level elections, while at the same time only managing to successfully elect 132 provincial councillors across 33 provinces. This implies that the party continues to find it difficult to compete with the well-established political machines of parties and other groups at the local level.
Lastly, the Pheu Thai Party fielded candidates in 16 provinces and won 11 PAO chief positions following Thaksin Shinawatra's return from 15 years of self-exile in his role of de facto leader, the father of Prime Minister, and a campaign assistant of his party. In spite of its leadership of the coalition government, its performance in provincial elections demonstrated both its advantages and disadvantages. The Pheu Thai's ability to maintain voter loyalty in its traditional strongholds following Thaksin's return suggests that political stability and economic optimism may have revitalised the popularity of broadened electorates. Conversely, it encountered substantial competition in provinces where Ban Yai and Bhumjaithai networks exerted considerable influence, alongside increased resistance from rival groups.
Electoral Trends
These elections were not solely about the winners and losers; they also indicated more profound changes in decentralisation, not in terms of governmental authority, but rather in terms of political influence and power. Consequently, this election served to emphasis the importance of provincial forces. Ban Yai, or local political families, remained strong in numerous provinces, demonstrating the continued importance of local powers in electoral processes. Specifically, the Bhumjaithai party expanded its influence by expanding its local presence, as opposed to relying on national-level policies. In the same vein, the People's Party was able to expand its influence at the council level, despite the obstacles it faced. This indicates that provincial politics are becoming more diverse across regional and local power bases, moving away from traditional networks and centralisation in Bangkok or among a limited number of major parties.
Furthermore, a growing number of successful candidates had assembled strong teams of community influencers, business elites, and local leaders to expand their influence, rather than relying solely on their party affiliations. It is clear that independent and semi-independent candidates outperformed the most powerful political machines in a number of provinces, illustrating that even the most effective local teams can occasionally compete. This suggests a shift in Thai provincial politics, as strong, well-organised local teams are becoming more influential in determining electoral outcomes, in addition to political parties.
Additionally, candidate selection will be prioritised according to local prominence in accordance with the principles of decentralised power. To the same extent, political parties will adjust their strategies by conducting campaigns that promote provincial-level issues, economic concerns, and social policies that are tailored to specific regions, rather than relying on national narratives. Then, the complexity and competitiveness of Thailand's provincial elections are underscored by these findings. Political networks and patronage systems remain significant factors in determining success at the local level, despite the influence of national parties.
What comes next?
This election was more than just a battle for provincial authority; it established the way for both national politics and local powers. The 2025 provincial election results at the national level offer a view into the strategies and power struggles that will shape the 2027 general elections. The upcoming political landscape will be more competitive than ever before, with competition between Thailand's three largest political parties—Red(Pheu Thai), Blue (Bhumjaithai), and Orange (People's Party) , as well as the stability—or instability—of the ruling coalition. Although national politics receive the most attention, local political dynamics are equally significant. The forthcoming municipal elections will be the next significant electoral battle. This raises the question of whether local dynasties will maintain their dominance or if new political forces will make substantial gains. Subsequently, the emphasis will be on the development of new alliances and local networks.
In conclusion, the results of the 2025 provincial elections show that national parties still rely on local powersthat control voter mobilisation and influence political deals. While newcomers to the People's party found it difficult to obtain executive seats, the party's expanding number of provincial councillors implies the possibility of new alliances with local political figures and community leaders. Under these circumstances, provincial politics are increasingly diverse and no longer solely governed by traditional networks. Also, competition and compromise over local administrative finances and policies will be a central focus in the years ahead.
DISCLAIMER: All views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of IIPA and this platform.
Author
Suthikarn Meechan is a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs, and is an Associate Professor at the College of Politics and Governance, Mahasarakham University in Thailand.